pwp $help --manual-trading-guide
[POLY WEATHER PRO — MANUAL TRADING DECISION FRAMEWORK]
STEP 1 — confidence score
≥75 → consider entering. verify checklist first.
50–74 → half size only. higher uncertainty.
<50 → do not enter. signal too weak.
STEP 2 — pre-trade checklist
✓ all green = go. △ amber = caution, reduce size. ✗ red = stop.
any red check = no trade regardless of confidence score.
STEP 3 — ensemble spread
TIGHT (<8%) = atmosphere settled. highest confidence window.
MODERATE (8–18%) = half size max.
WIDE (>18%) = do not trade. models are guessing.
STEP 4 — threshold proximity
forecast within 1σ of resolution threshold → skip.
need ≥2σ clearance from threshold to trade confidently.
STEP 5 — synoptic regime
rising pressure = clearing = predictable = trade-ready.
pressure in transition = skip. atmosphere in flux.
STEP 6 — multi-model trend
GFS + ECMWF + ICON converging = strong consensus.
spread <10 = best entry window.
diverging = wait for next 6h model update cycle.
STEP 7 — climatology base rate
market >20% from 30yr base rate with no catalyst = suspicious.
forecast + clim + both sources agree = maximum confidence.
STEP 8 — accuracy decay
D+1 = 93% D+2 = 88% D+3 = 84% D+5 = 74% D+7 = 65%
D+5 or later: require confidence ≥80 before entering.
SIZING RULES
conf ≥75 + all green + D+1/D+2 = full size
conf ≥75 + all green + D+3–D+5 = 75% size
conf 50–74 + mostly green = 50% size
any red check = no trade
ENTRY TIMING
best: model run fresh (<3h) + tight ensemble + models converging
avoid: entering immediately after run — wait 30min for repricing
re-check: 00z · 06z · 12z · 18z UTC every day
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Poly Weather Pro · manual intelligence only · you decide, you trade